Employment and Support Allowance

Stephen Timms: To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions if he will estimate the number of recipients of employment and support allowance there would be in the (a) work related activity group and (b) assessment phase (i) with and (ii) without time-limiting in place for each financial year from 2011-12 to 2015-16.

Chris Grayling: The first table shows the estimated future recipients of contributory employment and support allowance (ESA) in the work related activity group (WRAG) with and without time-limiting in force.
	
		
			 Contributory ESA caseload in the WRAG 
			  With time-limiting in force Without time-limiting in force 
			 2011-12 200,000 200,000 
			 2012-13 260,000 400,000 
			 2013-14 200,000 590,000 
			 2014-15 160,000 730,000 
			 2015-16 40,000 720,000 
		
	
	The second table shows the estimated future recipients of contributory ESA in the assessment phase with and without time-limiting in force.
	
		
			 Contributory ESA caseload in the assessment phase 
			  With time-limiting in force Without time-limiting in force 
			 2011-12 180,000 180,000 
			 2012-13 110,000 190,000 
			 2013-14 180,000 190,000 
			 2014-15 170,000 180,000 
			 2015-16 160,000 170,000 
		
	
	Figures have been rounded to the nearest 10,000 claimants and are based on Budget 2011 forecasts for the ESA time-limiting proposal. Caseloads for contributory ESA have been given as people on income-related ESA or credits only ESA will be unaffected by the time limiting proposal.
	For those who leave the contributory ESA as a result of the time limit, it is estimated that around 60%, or approximately 400,000 people by 2015-16, are expected to be fully or partially compensated by income-related ESA, so will retain entitlement to ESA. And those who don't qualify for income-related ESA may remain on ESA on a credits-only basis.